卫生研究

中国若"躺平"代价有多大?研究模拟数据: 上亿

 

The model also considers age-specific vaccine coverage data, vaccine efficacy against different clinical endpoints, waning immunity, antiviral therapies, and non-pharmaceutical interventions.该模型还考虑了以下因素:特定年龄的疫苗覆盖率数据,疫苗对不同临床终点的保护力,疫苗保护力减弱,不同抗病毒疗法和非药物干预措施。

图表使用国家和地区流行病学家委员会(CSTE)的定义对新冠肺炎病例进行分类。Over 86% Chinese mainland seniors are vaccinated超86%的中国大陆老年人接种了新冠疫苗

Li Bin, vice minister of the National Health Commission, said at a news briefing that China has stuck to the "dynamic zero" policy with targeted measures over the past two years. Successful experiences have proved that the policy is the best choice for China to maintain social and economic development.国家卫生健康委副主任李斌在新闻发布会上表示,中国在过去两年中坚持“动态清零”政策,采取了有针对性的防控措施。成功经验证明,这一政策是中国保持社会经济发展的最佳选择。

'Dynamic zero' does not mean zero infections“动态清零”不是绝对的“零感染”

This mathematical model on infection rates looked at the situation in China as a whole and separately in Shanghai Municipality and China's Shanxi and Shandong provinces to project the COVID-19 burden if the dynamic zero-COVID policy hadn't been adopted. It focused on cases, patients requiring hospitalization and intensive care, and deaths, using hypothetical mitigation scenarios.该感染率数学模型除了对全国平均水平进行分析外,还比较了上海、山东、山西三地的情况。预测不采取“动态清零”防疫政策的新冠感染负担。研究使用假设的新冠缓解策略进行预测,重点关注感染人数、需要住院治疗和重症监护的病例数以及死亡人数。

In addition, about 3.35 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses had been administered across the Chinese mainland, said Wu Liangyou of the National Health Commission (NHC), and nearly 757 million people, or over half of the population, had received the booster jab.此外,国家卫生健康委的吴良友表示,中国大陆共接种约33.5亿剂新冠疫苗,超过一半的人口(近7.57亿人)进行了加强针注射。

Li stressed that "dynamic zero" does not mean zero infections. With the threats of Omicron and other COVID-19 variants, China cannot guarantee that no individuals will be infected with the novel coronavirus in the short term, but it is able to quickly identify and contain an outbreak once it is detected to prevent the virus from causing greater harm to the wider population.李斌强调,“动态清零”不是绝对的“零感染”,面对奥密克戎等变异株的挑战,我们还没有能力保证不出现一例本土病例,但中国的防控措施使得一旦发现疫情,可以迅速识别并控制疫情发展,防止病毒对更多人群造成更大伤害。

Zheng Zhongwei, head of vaccine research and development at the NHC, said the data shows vaccination is highly effective for the elderly to fend off severe symptoms and death when infected by COVID-19.国务院联防联控机制科研攻关组疫苗研发专班工作组组长、卫健委郑中伟表示,数据显示,接种疫苗能有效降低老年人的重症和死亡风险。

A senior citizen receives a dose of COVID-19 vaccine at a mobile COVID-19 vaccination site in Beijing, April 9, 2022. [Photo/Xinhua]

As for the senior citizens aged 60 and above – the category most vulnerable to COVID-19 – over 227 million people, or 86.23 percent of the group, had been vaccinated. Over 162 million of the Chinese seniors have received booster shots, added Wu.60岁及以上的老年人(新冠病毒最易感染人群)中,超过2.27亿人接种了新冠疫苗,占该群体的86.23%。吴良友还表示,超过1.62亿的中国老年人进行了加强针注射。

As of May 5, over 1.25 billion people in China, or 88.74 percent of the country's total population, had been fully inoculated against COVID-19. Nearly 216 million of them are over 60.截至5月5日,中国已有超过12.5亿人(占全国总人口的88.74%)完成了新冠疫苗全程接种。其中近2.16亿人超60岁。

'Dynamic-zero' policy key to curb COVID-19“动态清零”是中国防控疫情的制胜“法宝”

The essence of the dynamic zero-COVID approach is early detection and quick response measures to stop the continuous spread of the virus in communities to protect people's health and lives to the greatest extent.?“动态清零”的实质是早期检测和快速反应措施,阻止病毒在社区的持续传播,最大限度地保护人民的健康和生命。